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netcraft confirms it -- ubuntu is dying? [Oct. 17th, 2007|03:50 pm]
[Location |raleigh, nc]

December 28, 2006 -- Mark Shuttleworth says "We know now that there are probably at least 8 million [Ubuntu] users."

October 17, 2007 -- Mark Shuttleworth says Ubuntu has "in excess of 6 million users."

I have a follow up question, Mr. Shuttleworth. How did you manage to lose about 2 million users in less than 10 months? What does that mean for the future of Canonical and the funding that you provide to Ubuntu? Or were your numbers then, and now, simply made up? How many users do you actually have? Your inconsistent tales to reporters detract from the good work that the Ubuntu community guys like Jono and others are doing.

At least Fedora makes a good-faith attempt at statistical transparency.

(Deleted comment)
[User Picture]From: codergeek42
2007-10-17 10:19 pm (UTC)
I think the point is not that we can or cannot accurately get demographics of this, but that those of Ubuntu seem highly falsified or exaggerated, whereas (with Fedora) we have an actual basis for our userbase estimates in the form of simple IP tracking on the updates mirrors and things of that nature.
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[User Picture]From: spevack
2007-10-18 01:27 am (UTC)
that is, in fact, EXACTLY the point
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From: fooishbar
2007-10-18 02:09 am (UTC)
'Seem'? Do you have anything at all to back that assertion up, or is this just all breeze? Accusing people (another free software project, indeed) of jacking up their numbers for their own gain is pretty serious, so you should back that up when you say it (not to mention, think).
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[User Picture]From: codergeek42
2007-10-18 02:42 am (UTC)
Max's original post asked about this potential forgery of stats. I merely restated it for clarification in my post.
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[User Picture]From: mmcgrath
2007-10-18 02:48 am (UTC)

Time to spell it out.

:: sigh :: From the article:

"Shuttleworth also touched upon the issue of Unbuntu's user base, saying that it has "in excess of 6 million users." He did, however, admit that he couldn't be sure of the number since there is no formal registration process for most users, and neither Canonical nor the Ubuntu community do any active monitoring of installations."

Shuttleworth: 6 million!

Kerner (aurhor): But how did you get 6 million?

Shuttleworth: I don't know, neither Canonical nor Ubuntu do any active monitoring. 6 million!!!

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[User Picture]From: mjg59
2007-10-18 02:49 am (UTC)

Re: Time to spell it out.

Because, clearly, Canonical don't run the servers used for security updates.

Oh. Wait.
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[User Picture]From: jspaleta
2007-10-17 10:50 pm (UTC)

Speaking of Fedora usage stats....we've got maps!!!!!!

Here's a density map showing the density of unique IP's associated with the Fedora mirrorlist logs:

I'm hoping to roll out time lapse animation eye-candy of the first week of F8 release so we can get avisual depiction of not only the total number of unique ips but see them how they come on line across the globe over the first week or so of F8 life.

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[User Picture]From: codergeek42
2007-10-18 12:03 am (UTC)

Re: Speaking of Fedora usage stats....we've got maps!!!!!!

You rock, good sir! 8)
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From: (Anonymous)
2007-10-18 07:56 am (UTC)

just words

It's just a matter of choice of words. After all, 8 million is also 'in excess of 6 million'. He didn't lose 2 million, he just rephrased with a little more caution.
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[User Picture]From: mihmo
2007-10-18 02:46 pm (UTC)

Re: just words

if my bank 'rephrased with a little caution' my statements on the order of 2 million I'd be a bit upset ;)
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[User Picture]From: spevack
2007-10-20 03:12 am (UTC)

Re: Who gives a shit? Ubuntu is better and he has the marketing plan and you have?

I had to delete the parent comment due to profanity (and bad grammar).
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From: (Anonymous)
2007-10-23 12:35 pm (UTC)

Either way...

...we know it's OVER 9000!!! Sorry, I had to say it. Keep up the great work on Fedora, guys. I'm lovin' it!
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From: (Anonymous)
2008-01-12 06:08 pm (UTC)


Make peace, not war!
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